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Arb Brief — HORMUZ CRISIS

v2.9.2 · Apr 14
⚠ Arb Context: Hormuz
The arb is not "shut by economics." It's severed by a military chokepoint closure. Hormuz loadings collapsed 20+ → 3.8 mb/d. 13+ mb/d of Gulf exports gone. The Brent-WTI spread ($17) and freight (z=7.92) are SYMPTOMS, not causes. Resolution requires the strait reopening or rerouting stabilizing (Cape of Good Hope +2 weeks).
0.725freight_locked_arb — spread_wide (z=2.9) + freight_extreme (z=7.92). But "freight extreme" now means "you literally cannot transit the strait," not "shipping is expensive." The composite score understates the severity.
0.920regime_curve_destruction — M1-M12 -$22.61, roll -77%. The curve compounds the arb shutdown — even if freight moderated, carry makes the voyage punitive. Both legs must break for arb to open.

Tail risk: 100 mb floating storage trapped behind Hormuz. When the strait reopens, that crude + the rerouted cargoes arrive simultaneously. The Brent curve snaps from backwardation toward contango in days. Short-dated Brent puts are the hedge against reopening.

BWET z
7.92
Brent-WTI
$17.19
M1-M12
-$22.61
Hormuz
3.8 mb/d
Methodology Appendix
PlatformEnergyScope MCP v2.9.3
Pipelinedata → derived_signals (v2) → compare_runs → HTML → publish
Tools usedarb_signal, spread (Brent-WTI), term_structure (ICE.BRENT), latest (SHIP/ICE/MACRO), derived_signals, compare_runs, IEA.OMR_HEADLINE
Data sourcesICE (Brent M1-M12), SHIP (BWET), MACRO (CLF/WTI), PET (spot), IEA (OMR headline, Hormuz loadings)
Contradictions firingregime_curve_destruction (0.920), freight_locked_arb (0.725)
Snapshot keysbrent_wti_spread, brent_wti_zscore, bwet_z, ice_m1, ice_m12, m1_m12, roll_yield_pct, arb_score, nymex_wti, iea_hormuz_loss_mbd, iea_hormuz_loadings_mbd, regime, primary_dislocation, contradictions_active_count
Signal layer stats2 contradictions active out of 14 defined; 39 named signals evaluated; regime_curve_destruction is top-score (0.920)
Narrative approachRegime-first: the arb closure is military, not economic. Contradictions frame the freight lockout and curve destruction as compound barriers. Tail-risk paragraph flags the reopening snap-back scenario.
2/15 arb-relevant · Tools: arb_signal, spread, term_structure, latest(SHIP/ICE/MACRO), derived_signals, compare_runs, IEA.OMR_HEADLINE
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