MONTHLY · NEW
Monthly Risk & Strategy Pack JULY 2026 SQUEEZE EDITION
The flagship. A full risk & strategy pack written as for a crude desk, captured live in the July 2026 post-conflict prompt squeeze — Brent M1 $97.84, M1–M2 $6.02, headline contradiction at extreme 0.83. The engine diff leads; the pack's own backtests refute two of its own prose claims and print it; book-risk VaR and stress; a decision dashboard with invalidation triggers; a pre-registered Report Performance panel scoring the previous edition; and the calibration ledger's opening entry. Six documented revisions in the footer — including the ones that made it look worse. Start here, or take the one-page version to a meeting.
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QUARTERLY
Full Strategy Outlook — Hormuz Crisis
The April 2026 crisis hero. Full causal context, every firing contradiction mapped to the Strait of Hormuz closure, KPI grid showing freight z=7.92 / Brent-WTI $17 / M1-M12 -$22.61 — the report that told the whole story in one page, five days ahead of the public cause.
preset="quarterly" · 21 KB · 9 contradictions firing · 5 days ahead of cause
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ALL-IN-ONE
Trader Desk — All-In-One
The widest single-page view — 29 snapshot keys covering prices, spreads, cracks, curve, positioning, seasonal, and regime. The "morning desk scan" framing. Key observation: ICE M1 -2%, BWET -6%, backwardation narrowing — the squeeze may be stabilizing but not resolving.
preset="trader" · 11 KB · 29 snapshot keys · second-most-comprehensive after quarterly
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DAILY
Morning Briefing
Overnight moves, catalyst calendar, curve shape. The 60-second read before the desk opens — written for the 7 AM walkthrough.
preset="morning" · prices + changes + curve + events
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WEEKLY · WED
EIA Release Deep-Dive
Crude, gasoline, distillate stocks vs 5-year seasonal. Refinery utilization, Cushing draw, supply-demand changes. The report that moves oil every Wednesday.
preset="eia_weekly" · prices + seasonal + crack + changes
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WEEKLY · FRI
CFTC Positioning
Managed money net for WTI / Brent / NG / ULSD / RBOB, percentile rank, conviction signals. Crowded-trade detection and fundamental-vs-speculative split.
preset="cftc_weekly" · positioning + changes
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WEEKLY
Refining Margins
3-2-1 crack, gasoline crack, diesel crack with z-scores. Refinery utilization vs seasonal. Margin compression vs margin trap — the products trader's dashboard.
preset="refining" · crack + seasonal + maintenance + changes
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DAILY
Cargo Arb Economics
Brent-WTI spread, freight, curve carry. Hormuz edition: why the arb wasn't shut by economics — it was severed by a military chokepoint closure.
preset="arb" · arb signal + curve + spreads
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WEEKLY / FOMC
Macro Impact
S&P, VIX, rates, DXY, metals. VIX-WTI correlation flip — the supply-shock signature. Where oil sits in the broader risk picture.
preset="macro" · prices + correlate_all + changes
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AD-HOC
Storage Play Economics
Cushing inventory, floating storage, M1-M12 term structure, roll yield. Forced-storage-build pattern and what the curve is actually pricing.
preset="storage" · curve + seasonal + spreads
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AD-HOC
Post-Shock Debrief
Which contradictions are firing, which are new vs intensifying, and the dominant lens. The derived-signals layer as a regime summary.
preset="regime" · breakpoints + volatility + correlations + changes
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MONTHLY · BASELINE
Crude Grade Differentials
LLS, Mars, West Texas Sour, imported grades. Jan 2026 pre-crisis baseline (EIA monthly grade data runs 3 months behind, so post-Hormuz differentials aren't visible yet) — includes a forward-look section on expected moves once Feb/Mar data lands. LLS-Mars spread $1.72 (z=-0.49, 26th pctl) is the headline.
preset="grades" · 9 KB · pre-crisis baseline + forward look · vintages documented inline
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Note: these are snapshots from April 14 and July 24, 2026, captured during live regimes and frozen as illustrative examples — not live data. Prices, inventories, and signal scores will not update. For live queries,
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the workflows catalog for how the presets map to the analyst's daily / weekly / monthly / quarterly cycle, and
the methodology page for how the reports earn trust.