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EIA Weekly — HORMUZ CRISIS

v2.9.2 · Apr 14
⚠ Stocks Context: Hormuz
Global inventories fell 85 mb in March (IEA). US stocks appear normal (60th pctl) but the world outside the US is draining fast. Refinery runs globally collapsed to 77.2 mb/d. Singapore distillate at $290/bbl ATH.
1.000diesel_clean_long — z=5.00, no overhang. Global distillate shortage from Hormuz cutting Middle East refinery supply to Asia.
0.797refiner_margin_trap — US cracks extreme but gasoline at 100th pctl. Crisis may resolve overhang via demand destruction at $150 crude.
0.965forced_storage_build — Cushing +14.3% week. US crude trapped — can't export through freight-locked arb. Forced accumulation.
0.522gasoline_overhang — Gasoline crack z=3.09 but stocks at ceiling. The weakest contradiction — may resolve as pump prices rise.
Crude
461.6
Gasoline
240.9
Distillate
117.8
Global Draw
-85 mb
Production
13.66

Appendix: MCP Methodology

Platform: EnergyScope MCP v2.9.3
Pipeline: data → derived_signals (v2, scored/themed/transition-aware) → compare_runs → HTML → publish
Tools used: latest(PET weekly), seasonal, crack_spread x3, snd_balance, derived_signals, compare_runs, IEA.OMR_HEADLINE
Data sources: PET, IEA
Contradictions firing: diesel_clean_long (1.000), forced_storage_build (0.965), refiner_margin_trap (0.797), gasoline_overhang (0.522)
Snapshot keys: crude_stocks_mb, crude_seasonal_pctl, gasoline_stocks_mb, gasoline_seasonal_pctl, distillate_stocks_mb, distillate_seasonal_pctl, cushing_z, cushing_7d_pct, production_mbd, production_seasonal_pctl, refinery_util, crack_321_z, crack_diesel_z, crack_gasoline_z, iea_global_stock_change_mb, iea_refinery_runs_mbd, regime, primary_dislocation, dominant_lens, contradictions_active_count
Signal layer: 45 signals evaluated, 19 active across 6 themes. Dominant lens: diesel_clean_long (1.0). Virtual metric: OPEC-IEA spread +2.53 mb/d.
Narrative approach: Regime-first hierarchy. Contradictions are server-canonical. Replication: any MCP client calling the same tools produces identical analysis.

4/15 desk-relevant contradictions · Tools: latest, seasonal, crack_spread, snd_balance, derived_signals, compare_runs, IEA.OMR_HEADLINE
This pack was generated by one prompt against the EnergyScope platform.
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