Crude Grades — HORMUZ CRISIS
v2.9.3 · Apr 14 · Monthly
⚠ Context: Hormuz Closure
Grade data is Jan 2026 — pre-crisis. The Hormuz closure (Feb 28) will dramatically reshape differentials when Feb/Mar data arrives. Gulf grades (Saudi, Iraqi, Kuwaiti) face acute premium expansion. US Gulf grades (LLS, Mars) will decouple further from international.
⚠ DATA VINTAGE: January 2026 (EIA monthly, ~3 month lag). Post-Hormuz differentials not yet visible. Use as baseline for when Feb/Mar prints.
US Gulf Grades (Jan 2026, $/bbl first purchase)
| Grade | Price | vs WTI FP | Character |
|---|
| LLS | $61.65 | +$1.73 | Light sweet, Gulf refinery benchmark |
| Mars Blend | $59.93 | +$0.01 | Medium sour, LOOP delivery |
| Heavy LS | $59.73 | -$0.19 | Heavy sweet |
| WTI FP | $59.92 | — | Cushing benchmark (first purchase) |
| WTS | $56.80 | -$3.12 | Sour, Permian Basin |
| ANS | $55.85 | -$4.07 | Alaska, West Coast delivery |
LLS-Mars Spread (Light-Heavy Differential)
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Current | $1.72 |
| Mean | $3.29 |
| Z-score | -0.49 |
| Percentile | 26th |
International Grades (latest available)
| Grade | Price | Vintage | Status |
|---|
| Saudi Light (landed US) | $64.13 | Jan 2026 | Current |
| Mexican Mayan (FOB) | $55.30 | Nov 2025 | 2 mo lag |
| Iraqi Basrah Light (FOB) | $64.63 | May 2021 | STALE |
| Saudi Medium (landed US) | $56.50 | Jan 2021 | STALE |
| UK Brent (landed US) | $59.58 | Aug 2005 | STALE |
Forward lookWhen Feb/Mar grade data arrives, expect: LLS-Mars spread widens (light premium rises in a supply-constrained market). Saudi Light landed cost spikes ($64 → likely $80-100+ reflecting physical Brent near $130-150). WTS discount deepens (Permian sour competes against zero Gulf imports). ANS disconnects further (West Coast isolated from Hormuz flows). The pre-crisis baseline above is the "before" picture.
Appendix: MCP Methodology
Platform: EnergyScope MCP v2.9.3
Pipeline: data → report(preset=grades) → spread(LLS-Mars) → HTML → publish
Tools used: report (grades preset), get_data (6 US grades, 6 months history), spread (LLS-Mars), save_report_run (publish=True)
Data sources: PET (EIA crude grade first-purchase prices, monthly). Watchlist: oil_analyst_monthly_grades (15 series).
Snapshot keys: lls mars hls wts wti_fp ans saudi_light_landed mayan_fob lls_mars_spread lls_mars_zscore lls_mars_pctl wti_spot brent_spot regime data_vintage
Limitation: Monthly data, ~3 month lag. Jan 2026 is latest. Post-Hormuz differentials (Feb 28+) not yet available.
Narrative: Pre-crisis baseline + forward-look for expected differential changes when Hormuz data arrives.