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Macro — HORMUZ CRISIS

v2.9.2 · Apr 14
⚠ Macro Regime: Supply Shock
Oil ↑ VIX ↑ S&P ↓ Copper ↓ = textbook supply shock from a chokepoint closure. Not demand-pull, not speculative. North Sea Dated $130, physical crude peaked $150. The macro pattern is 1973-style, not 2008-style.
0.922supply_shock_signature — VIX-WTI ρ +0.922 (vs mean +0.03). Oil rallying with vol expanding AND equities falling. Classic geopolitical supply shock. The Hormuz closure is the 2026 version of the 1973 embargo.
0.725fundamental_rally — Positioning at median while physical crude near $150. No speculative bubble — this is a real shortage being priced. Trade pairing: long oil / short S&P (ρ -0.89).
0.725freight_locked_arb — The freight signal (z=7.92) IS the Hormuz signal in the macro context. BWET tracks crude tanker futures which price the strait disruption directly.
VIX-WTI ρ
+0.922
S&P-WTI ρ
-0.888
Brent Dated
$130
Physical Peak
$150
Methodology Appendix
PlatformEnergyScope MCP v2.9.3
Pipelinedata → derived_signals (v2) → compare_runs → HTML → publish
Tools usedcorrelate_all (WTI vs MACRO.*), latest (MACRO/ECB), percentile (WTI/Brent), derived_signals, compare_runs, IEA.OMR_HEADLINE
Data sourcesMACRO (VIX, S&P, DXY, copper, 10Y, gold, BWET), ECB (USD/EUR), SHIP (BWET), IEA (OMR headline, Brent Dated, physical peak)
Contradictions firingsupply_shock_signature (0.922), fundamental_rally (0.725), freight_locked_arb (0.725)
Snapshot keysvix_corr, spx_corr, dxy_corr, bwet_z, brent_wti_zscore, wti_mm_pctl, brent_mm_pctl, eurusd, wti_price_pctl, iea_brent_dated, iea_physical_peak, regime, primary_dislocation, contradictions_active_count
Signal layer stats3 contradictions active out of 14 defined; 39 named signals evaluated; supply_shock_signature is top-score (0.922)
Narrative approachRegime-first: supply shock classification drives the narrative. Contradictions confirm the shock is fundamental (not speculative) and freight-locked. Cross-asset correlations (VIX +0.922, S&P -0.888) are the macro fingerprint, not standalone metrics.
3/15 macro-relevant · Tools: correlate_all, latest(MACRO.*), percentile, derived_signals, compare_runs, IEA.OMR_HEADLINE
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