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Morning Brief — HORMUZ CRISIS

v2.9.2 · Apr 14 · IEA OMR today
⚠ Regime: Hormuz Closure
Strait closed since Feb 28. Supply crashed to 97 mb/d (-10.1). 13+ mb/d exports severed. IEA revised demand -730 kb/d — now contracting. Physical crude peaked near $150. Every signal this week was downstream of Hormuz.
1.000diesel_clean_long — dominant_lens. Singapore distillate $290 ATH. Cleanest long in the complex.
0.965forced_storage_build — Cushing +14.3% despite -77% roll. US crude trapped; exports shut.
0.922supply_shock_signature — VIX-oil +0.92. Textbook chokepoint-closure macro pattern.
0.920regime_curve_destruction — M1-M12 -$22.61. Curve screaming for barrels behind the strait.
0.725freight_locked_arb — Arb shut by military closure, not economics.
0.725fundamental_rally — Positioning at median = no speculative crowd to flush.
IEA Supply
97
Hormuz Loss
13+
ICE M1
$100.30
NYMEX WTI
$97.00
BWET z
7.92
M1-M12
-$22.61
US Rigs
545
TTF
€46.28

Appendix: MCP Methodology

Platform: EnergyScope MCP v2.9.3
Pipeline: data → derived_signals (v2, scored/themed/transition-aware) → compare_runs → HTML → publish
Tools used: latest(daily), derived_signals, compare_runs, upcoming_events, IEA.OMR_HEADLINE
Data sources: ICE, SHIP, MACRO, GAS, CFTC, BH, IEA
Contradictions firing: diesel_clean_long (1.000), forced_storage_build (0.965), supply_shock_signature (0.922), regime_curve_destruction (0.920), freight_locked_arb (0.725), fundamental_rally (0.725)
Snapshot keys: wti, brent, ice_m1, ice_m12, m1_m12, roll_yield_pct, bwet_z, brent_wti_zscore, crack_321_z, gasoline_seasonal_pctl, production_seasonal_pctl, wti_mm_pctl, brent_mm_pctl, vix_corr, cushing_z, cushing_7d_pct, wti_price_pctl, nymex_wti, ttf_eur_mwh, iea_global_supply_mbd, iea_hormuz_loss_mbd, iea_demand_revision_kbd, bh_us_rigs, regime, primary_dislocation, dominant_lens, contradictions_active_count, signals_active_count
Signal layer: 45 signals evaluated, 19 active across 6 themes. Dominant lens: diesel_clean_long (1.0). Virtual metric: OPEC-IEA spread +2.53 mb/d.
Narrative approach: Regime-first hierarchy. Contradictions are server-canonical. Replication: any MCP client calling the same tools produces identical analysis.

9/15 contradictions · 19/45 signals · 6 themes · HORMUZ CRISIS · Tools: latest, derived_signals(v2), compare_runs, IEA.OMR_HEADLINE, upcoming_events
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