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Refining — HORMUZ CRISIS

v2.9.2 · Apr 14
⚠ Global Refining Crisis
Hormuz closure cut Middle East refinery feedstock to Asia. Global runs collapsed to 77.2 mb/d (IEA). Singapore distillate at $290/bbl ATH. Diesel is the global shortage; gasoline is the US-only overhang.
1.000diesel_clean_long — THE trade of the Hormuz crisis. z=5.00, no overhang, global shortage confirmed by Singapore $290. NYMEX HO at $3.67/gal ($154/bbl equivalent).
0.797refiner_margin_trap — US 3-2-1 at z=4.19 but gasoline stocks 100th pctl. The gasoline component is the trap; diesel component is the long. Split the trade.
0.522gasoline_overhang — Gasoline crack z=3.09 looks strong but 100th pctl stocks = false signal. At $150 crude, pump price pass-through may destroy demand enough to draw stocks. Time horizon: weeks.
3-2-1
$51.40
Diesel
$77.88
Gasoline
$38.15
Singapore
$290
NYMEX HO
$3.67
NYMEX RBOB
$3.03
Refinery Util
92.1%
Global Runs
77.2
Methodology Appendix
PlatformEnergyScope MCP v2.9.3
Pipelinedata → derived_signals (v2) → compare_runs → HTML → publish
Tools usedcrack_spread ×3, latest (PET stocks, MACRO.HOF/RBF), seasonal, derived_signals, compare_runs, IEA.OMR_HEADLINE
Data sourcesPET (product stocks, cracks), MACRO (HOF, RBF), IEA (OMR headline, refinery runs, Singapore distillate)
Contradictions firingdiesel_clean_long (1.000), refiner_margin_trap (0.797), gasoline_overhang (0.522)
Snapshot keyscrack_321_z, crack_diesel_z, crack_gasoline_z, gasoline_seasonal_pctl, distillate_seasonal_pctl, refinery_util, nymex_ho_gal, nymex_rbob_gal, iea_refinery_runs_mbd, iea_singapore_dist_usd_bbl, regime, primary_dislocation, dominant_lens, contradictions_active_count
Signal layer stats3 contradictions active out of 14 defined; 39 named signals evaluated; diesel_clean_long is max-score (1.0)
Narrative approachRegime-first: contradictions are headlines, not raw metrics. The diesel shortage thesis anchors all three contradiction narratives. Gasoline overhang is explicitly flagged as a false-signal risk.
3/15 refining-relevant contradictions · Tools: crack_spread×3, latest(PET/MACRO), seasonal, derived_signals, compare_runs, IEA.OMR_HEADLINE
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