The snap-back math: 100 mb floating behind Hormuz + 40 mb China additions + rerouted Cape cargoes arriving. When the strait reopens, potentially 150+ mb of crude hits the market within weeks. M1-M12 could swing from -$22 to flat or contango. The storage trade reverses from "nowhere to put it" to "nowhere to sell it."
Tools used: term_structure (ICE Brent forward curve), seasonal (crude stocks / Cushing seasonality), latest (PET weekly stocks), derived_signals (contradiction scoring), compare_runs (run-over-run diff), IEA.OMR_HEADLINE (global stock changes, floating storage, China additions).
Data sources: ICE (Brent futures M1-M12), EIA PET (US weekly crude and product stocks), IEA Oil Market Report (global balances, floating storage estimates, China crude additions).
Contradiction methodology: Two storage-relevant contradictions are active. forced_storage_build (score 0.965) fires when Cushing builds rapidly (z-score > 2, 7-day change > 5%) despite deeply negative roll yield, indicating physical trapping rather than economic storage. regime_curve_destruction (score 0.920) fires when backwardation exceeds historical extremes (M1-M12 < -$15) while physical delivery is constrained — the curve prices scarcity that logistics cannot resolve.
Snapshot keys: ice_m1, ice_m12, m1_m12, roll_yield_pct, cushing_z, cushing_7d_pct, crude_seasonal_pctl, iea_global_stock_change_mb, iea_floating_storage_mb, iea_china_crude_additions_mb, regime, primary_dislocation, contradictions_active_count.
Unique angle: Storage bifurcation — global inventories are draining (-85 mb) while three pockets accumulate (100 mb floating behind Hormuz, 40 mb China strategic additions, Cushing forced builds). The bifurcation implies a violent snap-back when the strait reopens.