Trader Brief — HORMUZ CRISIS
v2.9.3 · Apr 14 · All-in-one desk view
⚠ Regime: Hormuz Closure
Supply crashed to 97 mb/d. 13+ mb/d exports severed. Physical crude peaked $150. ICE M1 easing $100→$98 today. BWET freight easing $169→$159. Backwardation narrowing -$22.61→-$19.19. The squeeze may be stabilizing — but not resolving.
Prices & Spreads
Curve & Freight
M1-M12
-$19.19
narrowing from -$22.61
BWET
$159.05
easing from $169
Inventories & Production
Positioning & Macro
7-Day Changes (z > 2)
| Series | Change | Z-Score |
|---|
| BWET Freight | +36.7% | 4.2 |
| ICE M12 | +6.3% | 3.8 |
| Cushing | +14.3% | 3.7 |
| EUR/USD | +1.6% | 3.6 |
| ICE M1 | -9.9% | 2.5 |
| Crude Stocks | +2.8% | 2.4 |
| Brent Spot | +9.8% | 2.4 |
| WTI Spot | +8.9% | 2.3 |
Key Contradictions
1.000diesel_clean_long — z=5.00, Singapore $290. THE trade.
0.965forced_storage_build — Cushing +14.3% despite -77% roll. US crude trapped.
0.922supply_shock_signature — VIX-oil +0.92. Textbook Hormuz.
0.725freight_locked_arb — Arb shut by military closure.
0.725fundamental_rally — Positioning median = not speculative.
Appendix: MCP Methodology
Platform: EnergyScope MCP v2.9.3
Pipeline: data → report(preset=trader) → derived_signals (v2) → compare_runs → HTML → publish
Tools used: report (trader preset), latest ×2 (daily+weekly), term_structure, crack_spread, spread, upcoming_events, derived_signals, compare_runs, save_report_run (publish=True)
Data sources (10): PET (stocks/production/cracks), ICE (curve), SHIP (freight), CFTC (positioning), MACRO (NYMEX futures), NG (gas), GAS (TTF), ECB (FX), BH (rigs), IEA (headlines)
Watchlist: oil_analyst_oil_daily (16 series)
Contradictions firing: diesel_clean_long (1.0), forced_storage_build (0.965), supply_shock_signature (0.922), freight_locked_arb (0.725), fundamental_rally (0.725) + 4 more
Snapshot keys (29): wti brent brent_wti_spread brent_wti_zscore ice_m1 ice_m12 m1_m12 bwet crude_stocks_mb gasoline_seasonal_pctl cushing_7d_pct production_mbd refinery_util crack_321_z wti_mm_pctl brent_mm_pctl eurusd ttf_eur_mwh nymex_wti nymex_ho_gal nymex_rbob_gal bh_us_rigs iea_global_supply_mbd iea_hormuz_loss_mbd regime
Narrative: Regime-first. The trader view is the widest single page — prices, curve, stocks, positioning, cracks, macro, all in one. Contradictions provide the analytical synthesis.