Week in Petroleum
Data through 2026-09-01 · published 2026-09-04 08:30 UTC · The weekly petroleum table EIA published from 2002 until 29 October 2025, rebuilt from the same public series and generated fresh each week.
The brief
Measured — generated from the table by fixed rule, no model in this path
diesel_clean_long — Diesel crack extreme without inventory overhang — cleanest long signal in the complex.
Conventional gasoline, NY Harbor fell by 0.35, to 3.20 Dollars per Gallon, a 3.4-sigma move for this series, leaving it at the 100th percentile of the same-week window across 5 prior years.
- Propane, Mont Belvieu rose by 0.06, to 0.74 Dollars per Gallon, a 2.0-sigma move for this series, leaving it at the 44th percentile of the same-week window across 5 prior years.
- No 2 heating oil, NY Harbor rose by 0.24, to 4.63 Dollars per Gallon, a 1.7-sigma move for this series, leaving it at the 100th percentile of the same-week window across 5 prior years.
- Brent rose by 6.27, to 96.0 Dollars per Barrel, leaving it at the 91st percentile of the same-week window across 5 prior years.
Sitting at an extreme
- Cushing, OK sits at the 0th percentile of the same-week window across 5 prior years (22.5 Million Barrels).
- Total gasoline sits at the 0th percentile of the same-week window across 5 prior years (205.7 Million Barrels).
- Distillate fuel oil sits at the 0th percentile of the same-week window across 5 prior years (104.2 Million Barrels).
- Propane/propylene sits at the 100th percentile of the same-week window across 5 prior years (107.4 Million Barrels).
Signals firing
extreme — gasoline stocks seasonal percentile of 0 is below the 20 threshold
gasoline_undersupplied: Gasoline stocks < 20th seasonal percentile
extreme — distillate stocks seasonal percentile of 0 is below the 20 threshold
distillate_undersupplied: Distillate stocks < 20th seasonal percentile
extreme — US crude production seasonal percentile of 100 is at or above the 99 threshold
production_at_seasonal_high: Production at or above the 99th percentile of the same-week distribution (a seasonal high, NOT an all-time record)
extreme — US refinery utilization (%) of 98 exceeds the 92 threshold
refinery_strong: Refinery utilization above 92%
mild — diesel crack z-score of 3.16 exceeds the 3 threshold
diesel_crack_extreme: Diesel crack z-score above 3
diesel_clean_long — Diesel crack extreme without inventory overhang — cleanest long signal in the complex.
The numbers those rules were tested against:
brent_wti_spread = 4.54brent_wti_zscore = -0.06crack_321_z = 2.48crack_diesel_z = 3.16crack_gasoline_z = 1.39crude_seasonal_pctl = 63.2crude_stock_wow = -4.45cushing_z = -0.89distillate_seasonal_pctl = 0gasoline_seasonal_pctl = 0production_seasonal_pctl = 100refinery_util = 98wti_price_pctl = 88.8
Not evaluated.- wti_mm_pctl not computed: CFTC.WTI.MM_Net has 0 weekly observations, needs 104 (~2y) before a percentile means anything
- brent_mm_pctl not computed: CFTC.BRENT.MM_Net has 0 weekly observations, needs 104 (~2y) before a percentile means anything
12 of the catalog's conjunctions were not evaluated — they need legs this panel does not measure.
The table
| Metric | Date | Value | Change | y/y | Units |
|---|
| Stocks |
| Crude oil (excl. SPR) | 2026-08-28 | 424.46 | w/w -4.45 | 3.753 | Million Barrels |
| Cushing, OK | 2026-08-28 | 22.508 | w/w 0.08 | -1.714 | Million Barrels |
| Total gasoline | 2026-08-28 | 205.669 | w/w -1.173 | -12.87 | Million Barrels |
| Distillate fuel oil | 2026-08-28 | 104.187 | w/w 0.796 | -11.736 | Million Barrels |
| Propane/propylene | 2026-08-28 | 107.411 | w/w -2.072 | 11.283 | Million Barrels |
| SPR | 2026-08-28 | 286.604 | w/w -3.122 | -118.106 | Million Barrels |
| Supply |
| Crude production | 2026-08-28 | 13,862 | w/w 19 | 439 | Thousand Barrels per Day |
| Crude imports | 2026-08-28 | 6,770 | w/w 612 | 28 | Thousand Barrels per Day |
| Refinery utilization | 2026-08-28 | 98 | w/w 0.6 | 3.7 | Percent |
| Gasoline product supplied | 2026-08-28 | 8,922 | w/w -121 | -195 | Thousand Barrels per Day |
| Distillate product supplied | 2026-08-28 | 3,390 | w/w -449 | -378 | Thousand Barrels per Day |
| Retail prices |
| Regular gasoline | 2026-08-31 | 4.071 | w/w -0.014 | 0.894 | Dollars per Gallon |
| No 2 diesel | 2026-08-31 | 5.599 | w/w -0.053 | 1.865 | Dollars per Gallon |
| Heating oil (residential) | 2026-03-30 | 5.535 | w/w -0.031 | 1.865 | Dollars per Gallon |
| Propane (residential) | 2026-03-30 | 2.674 | w/w -0.004 | -0.016 | Dollars per Gallon |
| Spot prices |
| WTI, Cushing | 2026-09-01 | 91.48 | d/d 4.45 | 25.53 | Dollars per Barrel |
| Brent | 2026-09-01 | 96.02 | d/d 6.27 | 27.93 | Dollars per Barrel |
| Conventional gasoline, NY Harbor | 2026-09-01 | 3.203 | d/d -0.347 | 1.155 | Dollars per Gallon |
| No 2 heating oil, NY Harbor | 2026-09-01 | 4.629 | d/d 0.238 | 2.357 | Dollars per Gallon |
| Propane, Mont Belvieu | 2026-09-01 | 0.736 | d/d 0.056 | 0.068 | Dollars per Gallon |
Check it against the source
These figures come from the published series, not from transcribing anyone's PDF — so they can be checked against the originals directly:
Every sentence above the table was generated from the table by fixed rule — the lede is the largest move measured in units of that series' own recent changes, so a crude build and a rig move can be ranked against each other. Re-run it on the same date and the text is identical. Method:
methodology ·
how we checked it against EIA's final edition.