Week in Petroleum
Data through 2026-10-20 · published 2026-10-22 08:30 UTC · The weekly petroleum table EIA published from 2002 until 29 October 2025, rebuilt from the same public series and generated fresh each week.
The brief
Measured — generated from the table by fixed rule, no model in this path
Product stocks at extreme seasonal lows, crude stocks below their seasonal range with refineries running hot. 5 signals firing: gasoline_undersupplied, distillate_undersupplied, crude_undersupplied, crude_price_extreme… (no contradiction evaluated — 12 of the catalog's conjunctions need legs this panel does not measure)
Crude production fell by 410.0, to 13,269 Thousand Barrels per Day, a 3.8-sigma move for this series, leaving it at the 58th percentile of the same-week window across 5 prior years.
- Propane (residential) rose by 0.06, to 2.69 Dollars per Gallon, leaving it at the 84th percentile of the same-week window across 5 prior years.
- Gasoline product supplied rose by 574.0, to 8,982 Thousand Barrels per Day, leaving it at the 74th percentile of the same-week window across 5 prior years.
- Distillate product supplied fell by 591.0, to 3,732 Thousand Barrels per Day, leaving it at the 21st percentile of the same-week window across 5 prior years.
Sitting at an extreme
- Crude oil (excl. SPR) sits at the 0th percentile of the same-week window across 5 prior years (412.5 Million Barrels).
- Total gasoline sits at the 0th percentile of the same-week window across 5 prior years (205.3 Million Barrels).
- Distillate fuel oil sits at the 0th percentile of the same-week window across 5 prior years (104.3 Million Barrels).
- Propane/propylene sits at the 100th percentile of the same-week window across 5 prior years (105.8 Million Barrels).
Signals firing
extreme — gasoline stocks seasonal percentile of 0 is below the 20 threshold
gasoline_undersupplied: Gasoline stocks < 20th seasonal percentile
extreme — distillate stocks seasonal percentile of 0 is below the 20 threshold
distillate_undersupplied: Distillate stocks < 20th seasonal percentile
extreme — crude stocks seasonal percentile of 0 is below the 20 threshold
crude_undersupplied: Crude stocks < 20th seasonal percentile
elevated — WTI price historical percentile of 98 exceeds the 95 threshold
crude_price_extreme: WTI price above 95th historical percentile (flat price extreme)
mild — US refinery utilization (%) of 93.4 exceeds the 92 threshold
refinery_strong: Refinery utilization above 92%
The numbers those rules were tested against:
brent_wti_spread = 7.33brent_wti_zscore = 0.51crack_321_z = 0.68crack_diesel_z = 2.46crack_gasoline_z = -1.29crude_seasonal_pctl = 0crude_stock_wow = -3.06cushing_z = 0.06distillate_seasonal_pctl = 0gasoline_seasonal_pctl = 0production_seasonal_pctl = 57.9refinery_util = 93.4wti_price_pctl = 98
Not evaluated.- wti_mm_pctl not computed: CFTC.WTI.MM_Net has 0 weekly observations, needs 104 (~2y) before a percentile means anything
- brent_mm_pctl not computed: CFTC.BRENT.MM_Net has 0 weekly observations, needs 104 (~2y) before a percentile means anything
12 of the catalog's conjunctions were not evaluated — they need legs this panel does not measure.
The table
| Metric | Date | Value | Change | y/y | Units |
|---|
| Stocks |
| Crude oil (excl. SPR) | 2026-10-16 | 412.517 | w/w -3.06 | -10.307 | Million Barrels |
| Cushing, OK | 2026-10-16 | 27.594 | w/w 0.987 | 6.363 | Million Barrels |
| Total gasoline | 2026-10-16 | 205.31 | w/w -2.952 | -11.369 | Million Barrels |
| Distillate fuel oil | 2026-10-16 | 104.286 | w/w 1.675 | -11.265 | Million Barrels |
| Propane/propylene | 2026-10-16 | 105.846 | w/w -0.529 | 2.671 | Million Barrels |
| SPR | 2026-10-16 | 282.683 | w/w -0.3 | -125.881 | Million Barrels |
| Supply |
| Crude production | 2026-10-16 | 13,269 | w/w -410 | -360 | Thousand Barrels per Day |
| Crude imports | 2026-10-16 | 5,758 | w/w -291 | -160 | Thousand Barrels per Day |
| Refinery utilization | 2026-10-16 | 93.4 | w/w -0.1 | 4.8 | Percent |
| Gasoline product supplied | 2026-10-16 | 8,982 | w/w 574 | 528 | Thousand Barrels per Day |
| Distillate product supplied | 2026-10-16 | 3,732 | w/w -591 | -115 | Thousand Barrels per Day |
| Retail prices |
| Regular gasoline | 2026-10-19 | 4.284 | w/w -0.047 | 1.265 | Dollars per Gallon |
| No 2 diesel | 2026-10-19 | 6.276 | w/w 0.097 | 2.656 | Dollars per Gallon |
| Heating oil (residential) | 2026-10-19 | 6.19 | w/w 0.052 | 2.664 | Dollars per Gallon |
| Propane (residential) | 2026-10-19 | 2.689 | w/w 0.056 | 0.256 | Dollars per Gallon |
| Spot prices |
| WTI, Cushing | 2026-10-20 | 107.89 | d/d -2.12 | 49.23 | Dollars per Barrel |
| Brent | 2026-10-20 | 115.22 | d/d -3.6 | 54.22 | Dollars per Barrel |
| Conventional gasoline, NY Harbor | 2026-10-20 | 2.897 | d/d -0.018 | 1.057 | Dollars per Gallon |
| No 2 heating oil, NY Harbor | 2026-10-20 | 4.832 | d/d -0.008 | 2.717 | Dollars per Gallon |
| Propane, Mont Belvieu | 2026-10-20 | 1.133 | d/d 0.003 | 0.529 | Dollars per Gallon |
Check it against the source
These figures come from the published series, not from transcribing anyone's PDF — so they can be checked against the originals directly:
Every sentence above the table was generated from the table by fixed rule — the lede is the largest move measured in units of that series' own recent changes, so a crude build and a rig move can be ranked against each other. Re-run it on the same date and the text is identical. Method:
methodology ·
how we checked it against EIA's final edition.